Uncertainties in seismic hazard probabilistic analysis

Dan Cretu, Andrei Pricopie, Liviu Crainic

Abstract


Structural codes for seismic analysis and design imply an accurate (as far as possible) assessment of the parameters which quantify the severity of seismic action as felt on each location of the national territory. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is nowadays preferred by most codes. Cornell-McGuire methodology is usually accepted.
Although PSHA seems to be an advanced and logical approach, its intensive use along many years evidenced intrinsic sensitivities leading to unexpected distortions with respect to a real phenomenon.
The goal of the paper is to examine the sensitivity of PSHA, according to the model used within the Romanian Seismic Design Code P100, for different input data. A MATLAB program has been written for this purpose, which allowed determining the mean recurrence interval (MRI) for different earthquake magnitudes.


Keywords


structural code, seismic analysis, seismic hazard, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), mean recurrence interval (MRI), earthquake magnitude

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References


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