Landslides hazard analysis based on deterministic models using different scenarios of groundwater and seismic acceleration

Cristina Magdalena Coman, Sanda Manea, Ernest Olinic


The main indicator of the steady state of slopes is the safety factor, which can be physically expressed by comparing the stress conditions in the natural earthen slopes. The safety factor can vary between the critical value, the minimum value which marks the limit of the stable condition, and large and very large values, theoretically infinite.
The leading aim of this framework is to create a deterministic model for landslides hazard analysis based on direct evaluation of safety factor, under different degrees of soil saturation and considering different scenarios of seismic acceleration. The slope stability assessment will be done using infinite slope model.
This analysis can be approached in geographic information systems taking into account a pixel basis. Therefore, the factors and parameters that trigger the slope fail and those that prevent the slope for failing will be expressed as individual maps (thematic maps). These maps will be overlaid using a created GIS function, according to the mathematical formula of the safety factor.
The proposed model has been tested in a geographic information system environment in the Bucium Hill area, located on the south-east side of the Romanian city, Iasi.
The thematic maps engine used as main input data: digital terrain model and the results of geotechnical laboratory tests from 25 bore holes (friction angle, cohesion, unit weight).
The final result will be a quantitative hazard map of failure probability assessment. The calibration will be done by comparing with other maps obtained from two different approaches.


landslide, hazard, infinite slope, safety factor, GIS

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